Paradise Lost

The town of Paradise was a lovely spot in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains in northern California. The 27,000 residents of Paradise were mostly middle or lower class folks who enjoyed this quiet area far away from California’s more densely populated coastal regions. Paradise was surrounded by dense forest – a source of natural beauty but also of danger. Because of California’s naturally arid climate, forest fires occur regularly. Paradise had been threatened before and in 2008 fire had even engulfed around 200 homes. In the fall of 2018, California was experiencing drought conditions. Forest fires can result from natural causes like lightning strikes, but often are the result of human activity. Conflagrations can be caused by sparks from power lines, carelessly discarded cigarettes, campfires that are not fully extinguished, weed whackers, lawnmowers, or even outright arson. On November 6, 2018, the electric company, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) notified Paradise residents that it was considering shutting off power due to elevated fire risk, in part due to strong winds gusting up to 70 mph. Such winds are a nightmare for firefighters. They make forest fires virtually impossible to contain by carrying small embers quickly over long distances. On the morning of November 8th, PG&E noted a power outage related to one of its transmission lines about 10 miles east of Paradise. A company observer soon confirmed that a small fire had started in this location. Since the fire had begun near the Camp Creek Road, it was designated as the Camp fire.

Because of the hot, dry conditions and high winds, the Camp fire soon became a terrifying inferno bearing down upon Paradise. Residents awoke to an ominous red sky with ash raining down upon the town. City officials ordered an immediate evacuation, but there was only one main road out of town and it was soon choked with traffic. The town of Paradise was quickly consumed by flames which incinerated more than 90% of the town. 86 lives were lost, many of whom were elderly and unable to flee. It took 17 days to fully contain the fire. In the end, the Camp fire was the most deadly and destructive wildfire in the history of California with damages exceeding $16 billion.

In the wake of the Camp and other California wildfires, many politicians and media figures blamed climate change. They claimed that apocalyptic fires like the one that consumed the town of Paradise would only become more frequent if we don’t slash our CO2 emissions. To support their position, climate alarmists often point to statistics like the chart below, which shows the number of acres burned by wildfires each year in the US. In 1984, wildfires burned just over 1 million acres nationwide. Yet by 2015, more than 10 million acres burned – a total which was matched in 2017 and 2020. Surely, the climate alarmists tell us, this is spectacular evidence that global warming is at work! Well, not so fast. Despite these pronouncements, there is no evidence that global warming is driving an increase in wildfires – either in California or any where else.

Let’s begin by specifically addressing California wildfires, since these have gotten a tremendous amount of media and political attention in recent years. We must first note that wildfires in California are an entirely natural phenomenon. Fires have affected California for thousands of years due to the hot, dry conditions which prevail every summer and fall. One 2007 study estimated that prior to being settled by Europeans during the 1800’s, California wildfires consumed roughly 4.4 million acres each year, far exceeding the annual amount of state land burned in the last two decades, which ranges from approximately 90,000 acres to 1,590,000 acres. Yet the media still falsely claims that recent wildfire activity is “unprecedented.”

It turns out that the recent spate of devastating California wildfires are largely a function of poor government policy. Until the late 1980’s, Western forests had been well managed. Logging companies were allowed to harvest trees to produce lumbar while also preventing forests from becoming too dense. Controlled burns were used to clear underbrush so that it wouldn’t become fuel for later fires. Unfortunately, during the Clinton administration, federal forest management policy took a turn for the worse when it became heavily influenced by radical environmentalists. These environmentalists used lawsuits and regulations to throttle the logging industry, even opposing the removal of dead trees. Controlled burns were eliminated, allowed brush to build up. Modest, naturally occurring fires which would normally limit forest density were extinguished. As the result, forest density markedly increased. Trees which naturally would grow 50-80 per acre instead grew 300 to 400 per acre. This unnatural density made the trees more vulnerable to insect infestations like the bark beetle. Rather than isolated pockets of disease, insects killed vast swaths of forest, leaving huge numbers of dry, dead trees as potential fuel for wildfires. Poor forest management has put millions of acres of California’s forests at high risk for catastrophic wildfires.

In addition to bad forest management, climate alarmists have relentlessly pushed California towards so-called “green energy.” Former Governor Jerry Brown announced that California would mandate 100% renewable energy by 2045. Such renewable energy would consist mostly of unreliable, expensive wind and solar power. As the result of these green energy mandates, there has been tremendous political pressure on California’s largest energy company – government controlled Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) – to rapidly develop more wind and solar power. Yet even before the green energy mandates, California’s energy infrastructure was in horrible condition. Most of the towers for power lines were built before 1950. Such aging power infrastructure has become the primary cause of wildfires. In fact, the tragic 2018 Camp fire that incinerated the town of Paradise was caused by failing power equipment dating back to 1921! Now PG&E has been fully aware of the decrepit state of its power infrastructure. But the left wing politicians who control the company have constantly demanded that more and more resources be diverted to wind and solar. For example, in 2018, PG&E spent an astonishing $2.4 billion on renewable energy projects, while only $1.4 billion was allocated for improving existing infrastructure.

So it turns out that the problem of increasing wildfires in the last few decades is really a self inflicted wound, driven by foolish environmentalists and climate alarmists. Rather than wasting massive amounts of money on unreliable solar panels and wind farms, California should be pouring resources into desperately needed infrastructure improvements. The state should allow logging companies to harvest trees in order to limit forest density. Controlled burns should again be used to clear brush and limit the potential for uncontrollable fires. These are the kind of policies supported by true environmentalists!

There is another important element in whole wildfire drama: there are quite simply many more people and much more property at risk. In 1980, the population of California was 23.8 million. By 2020, that number had increased to 39.3 million. That means millions more people who potentially could cause a fire, plus more homes and businesses which could be destroyed by wildfires. In addition to the sheer number of Californians is matter of their location. Stratospheric housing prices in the big cities along the Pacific coast have driven many Californians inland to areas at much greater risk of wildfires. Similar dynamics have been at work throughout much of the western United States: more people and more homes in fire prone areas. The number of homes at risk in the western United States has increased from about 600,000 in 1940 to 6.7 million in 2010. So increasing population and development guarantee that the naturally occurring wildfires throughout the American west will affect more people and property, thus making news headlines.

Let’s circle back to the data of total acres burned by wildfires in the United States. We noted above that acres burned has increased significantly since 1983, from just over 1 million acres to 10 million acres. Climate alarmists have used this data to proclaim that the apocalypse is upon us. Yet as we’ve noted, there is a great deal of evidence that this increase in fire activity is the result of poor forest management, decaying energy infrastructure (old power lines sparking fires) and lots more people.

But what about wildfires before 1983? Well, the best source of data is the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The NIFC states that its data is most reliable after 1983. However, it does have wildfire data going back all the way to 1926. Strange as it may seem, the US Census Bureau also kept long term wildfire data. The graph below plots the long term data for total number of acres burned annually nationwide. With the larger picture in view, we can clearly see that the 10 million acres burned in recent years is dwarfed by the 50+ million acres burned in the early 30’s. Granted, the older data may not be quite as reliable as the more recent data. But it’s most likely that before to the development of the modern reporting system, some earlier fires went unreported, resulting in under counting of burned acreage. Regardless, the data clearly show the dramatic reduction in US wildfire activity since the first half of the 20th century. And again, the modest rise in burned acreage in the last few decades could easily be reversed by better forest management and updating old, faulty power lines. Sadly, California’s liberal politicians are eschewing these relatively cheap and easy solutions while pouring billions of dollars into unreliable and expensive solar and wind projects which will have precisely no effect on climate.

Now let’s really step back and look at the really big picture – worldwide wildfires. Once again, it turns out that the confident proclamations of climate alarmists are completely wrong. One comprehensive study in 2014 found that total burned acreage worldwide has substantially fallen by about 25% over the last century. These findings have been corroborated by many other studies. So the world is not turning into a hellish inferno like so many in the media would lead us to believe. Rather, wildfires around the world have declined in number and severity.

This whole discussion begs one last question: how can wildfires be decreasing in a world with rising CO2 levels and slightly warmer temperatures? Well, in earlier blogs we’ve already discussed the amazingly positive qualities of carbon dioxide. Plants breathe CO2 in the same way people breathe oxygen. CO2 fertilization has helped forests worldwide grow stronger and healthier. Through a process called transpiration, trees take in carbon dioxide through small pores (or stomata) on the undersurface of their leaves. However, when these pores are open, the leaves also lose water. Happily, with higher levels of atmospheric CO2, the pores do not need to be open as long, thereby limiting water loss. Higher CO2 concentrations therefore means that trees require less water, leaving more moisture in the soil. Additionally, slightly warmer air is able to hold more water vapor, leading to more rainfall. Thus, the combination of higher CO2 and gently warmer temperatures are not causing more forest fires, they’re preventing them!

So as with hurricanes and droughts, so with forest fires. Our media and politicians constantly bombard us with apocalyptic visions of climate disaster. Yet the truth should make us far more optimistic. There has been no significant change in hurricane activity. And the more prosperous we’ve become, there more we’ve been able to protect ourselves from powerful storms. Droughts, tornadoes and wildfires have become less frequent and severe over time. Fires would decline even further if leftist politicians and misguided environmentalists would allow us to properly manage our forests, update our power lines and stop wasting money on useless wind farms and solar panels. So take heart! Despite the tragedy of the Camp fire, paradise has not been lost.