Climate alarmists are constantly proclaiming that global warming is causing all manner of disasters. With amazing confidence, they repeatedly declare that hurricanes are becoming more frequent and more intense. Every storm is accompanied by breathless news coverage and becomes yet more evidence for runaway global warming. Yet last week we saw that this narrative is simply not true. Despite 50 years of global warming hysteria, there has been absolutely no change in either the number or the strength of hurricanes around the world.
Other than hurricanes, increasing droughts are perhaps the next most frequent frightening scenario touted by climate alarmists. For many people, it’s very easy to imagine warming accompanied by severe drought. Warmer temperatures conjure up visions of dry, cracked soil, bereft of any vegetation or life. Real life droughts really are scary things. Dearth of water is bad enough, but inevitably leads to poor crop yields and dwindling food supplies. Scarcity of water and food can indeed create a nightmare scenario. China suffered a severe drought from 1928-1930, resulting in widespread famine which claimed an estimated 3 million lives. Droughts affecting India and Bangladesh in the early 1940’s are also thought to have caused the death of at least 3 million people. Thankfully, the evidence clearly demonstrates that increasing levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere and gently increasing warmth have resulted in fewer and less intense droughts. The climate alarmists again are exactly wrong. It seems the only kind of increasing drought is the truth drought.
One of the best tools for analyzing droughts is the Palmer Drought Severity Index shown below. The Palmer Index takes values across the entire continental United States and averages them into a single, annual value. A value of 0 is an average year. Positive values indicate wetter than average conditions. Negative values represent drier than average conditions. An index value -1 to -2 means mild drought,-2 to -3 means moderate drought, -3 to -4 means severe drought and below -4 means extreme drought. The thin purple line is the annual Palmer Index value whereas the thicker line is the 9 year average which smooths out the ups and downs. This data makes it abundantly clear that there has been no significant trend in moisture conditions. Sure, there is natural variation over time. For instance, you can see that very dry conditions prevailed during the 1930’s causing the infamous “dust bowl.” (Of course, the dust bowl occurred prior to the significant increase in human CO2 emissions following World War II.) But it’s quite simply false to claim that droughts have become more of a problem.
The second graph looks at precipitation values across the continental US. The graph plots the percentage of land area which is classified as either very wet or very dry. (Very wet or very dry means that a given area experiences precipitation in the top or bottom ten percent of its historical distribution.) Again, the take home point is that there is absolutely no trend towards increasing drought.
What about worldwide drought? The graph below is from a 2014 study which looked at the percentage of the world classified as being in various stages of drought. The burgundy color (D4) denotes exceptional drought, red (D3) extreme drought, brown (D2) severe drought, orange (D1) moderate drought, and yellow (D0) abnormally dry. The data show that worldwide drought has actually fallen slightly over the last several decades.
Climate alarmists constantly proclaim that global warming will soon make the earth an uninhabitable desert, threatening our supply of food and fresh drinking water. The truth is the exact opposite. The world is becoming more verdant each and every year – not in spite of warmer temperatures and carbon dioxide but because of them! Gently rising temperatures and increasing carbon dioxide levels are helping forests and crops flourish. A satellite study from 2016 showed that over the past 35 years, 25-50% of the earth has become greener, while only 4% has become browner. The same study estimated a 14% worldwide increase in green vegetation. This is the equivalent of adding leaf coverage to an area twice the size of the continental United States! The authors of the study specifically attributed these changes largely to the CO2 fertilization effect.
All this great news presents quite a challenge to the global warming alarmists. Here they are proclaiming the imminent demise of the planet but the planet is just not cooperating with their dark predictions. Hurricanes? No more frequent or stronger than they’ve been in the past. Droughts? Actually decreasing as the earth becomes greener! Surely there must be some rotten news somewhere? What about tornadoes? During the spring and summer thunderstorm season, violent tornadoes are often in the news, leaving behind them swathes of destruction through some unfortunate Midwestern town. Hasn’t everybody seen the 1996 movie Twister, with Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton playing intrepid tornado researchers, willing to risk their own lives if they can only give people a better chance at surviving these storms? Global warming must be driving more tornadoes, right? Well, again the global warming alarmists have been bitterly disappointed.
The United States far outpaces the rest of the world in tornado activity, with an estimated 1,200 tornadoes annually. The great plains of the United States are the ideal playground for twisters. Midwestern thunderstorms often form when warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico meets relatively cold, dry air moving east from the Rocky Mountains. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tracked tornado frequency and intensity going back to 1954. The strength of tornadoes is currently measured on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, based on maximum wind velocity. EF0 tornadoes have wind speeds below 85 mph. You might lose a few shingles off your roof, but generally they cause minimal damage. (There is not reliable historical data on EF0 tornadoes because in the past they have often gone unreported or unnoticed.) EF5 tornadoes on the other hand produce incredible wind speeds exceeding 200 mph. These monsters will completely destroy everything in their path – even very sturdy buildings are often completely annihilated. Fortunately, EF5 tornadoes are very rare – there have been only 9 since the Enhanced Fujita scale was introduced in 2007.
The NOAA chart below shows the annual number of US tornadoes with intensity EF1 or greater from 1954 through 2014. Again, you do not need to have a Ph.D to see that there has been no significant change in the overall frequency of tornadoes.
This next chart records the number of tornadoes with rating of EF3 or greater. These stronger tornadoes account for only about 4% of all tornadoes, but are important because they cause a large majority of the damage and most of the deaths. Fascinatingly, the frequency of these stronger twisters has decreased since 1954. That is not a misprint. Despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and slightly warmer temperatures, the number of strong and violent tornadoes has gone down. Yet again more great news just when the alarmists have been predicting doom!
Climate alarmists almost seem to relish cataloging climate related deaths and making dire predictions of even more deaths in the future due to extreme weather events. Yet we’ve seen that the facts simply do not support this narrative. We’ve already learned that there is no evidence for more frequent or more intense hurricanes. Strong tornadoes are less common. Droughts have diminished in scope. Instead of becoming a hellish wasteland, the earth is becoming a greener, more pleasant place to live. Forests and crops are flourishing due to slightly warmer temperatures and greater CO2 fertilization. The world’s farmers continue to produce ever-increasing amounts of food thanks to fossil fuel powered mechanization, nitrogen based fertilizers, and irrigation. Humans everywhere are living longer, healthier, happier and more abundant lives. In many respects, there has never been such a wonderful time to be alive.
Yet the media and many left wing politicians have not gotten the memo. Considering the terrifying rhetoric coming from our media, it’s no wonder that many folks have been led to believe that many thousands, if not millions of people are either currently dying, or will die in the near future because of man-made global warming. Nothing could be further from the truth. Rather, the number of people who tragically lose their lives to extreme weather events has plummeted in the last century. This is one of the great success stories in all human history. In the last 100 years, the total number of deaths due to extreme weather events (floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme temperatures) has fallen by over 90%. Furthermore, during this period of time, the human population has increased by a factor of four – from just under 2 billion people in 1920 to over 7.5 billion today. When we account for this population growth, the death rate from extreme weather events has fallen by 98%. There has never been a time in human history when people have been safer from their environment.
I have no doubt that our leftist media and politicians will continue to create storms of climate hysteria and droughts of truth. But take heart, the reality is that our planet is flourishing. Sure, there are plenty of problems out there that need solving. But human beings are amazingly clever and creative. When we are properly reflecting the image of the God revealed in the Bible, people are wonderful caretakers for God’s creation.
