Phoenix, Arizona – located in the Sonoran Desert of the Southwestern United States – experienced a scorching hot summer last year. The city notched a record 145 calendar days with temperatures of 100 degrees F or greater, breaking the previous record of 143 days set in 1989. Phoenix also suffered a record number of days with temperatures reaching 110 deg F (53) and 115 deg F (14). Why was Phoenix so blazing hot last year? Well, one clear reason is that cities are hotter that their surrounding natural environment. Asphalt and concrete absorb heat. Therefore, growing cities means higher temperatures. And Phoenix has certainly grown over the last few decades. In 1989 (when the previous record number of 100 deg days was set) the population was 1.95 million people. Today, more than 4.5 million people call Phoenix home – an increase of 135%. But surely global warming must be the real culprit behind the city’s record temperatures?
Global warming alarmists love to talk about disasters related to extreme weather. The media constantly and confidently proclaims that global warming is driving more frequent and stronger hurricanes, droughts, floods, and wildfires. Yet we have seen that this narrative is entirely false. The data show that global hurricane activity has not significantly changed. Floods are no more frequent or severe. Worldwide droughts and wildfires have actually declined. Faced with such evidence, most alarmists choose to simply ignore it. Once again, the media bears much guilt in this regard. The media is only interested in stories that reinforce the narrative of climate apocalypse. But even when they grudgingly acknowledge some of these facts, alarmists feel like they can always fall back upon extreme heat waves. After all, even climate realists such as myself would agree that the earth’s climate has been gently warming over the last 300 years. This must mean that more lives are at risk due to scorching hot temperatures, right?
Let’s start our investigation by reviewing the NOAA chart below which plots the annual heat wave index in the contiguous United States. Obviously, the most remarkable thing about this chart is the dramatic surge in the heat wave index which occurred during the 1930’s. During this time, there were extreme heat waves and drought which plagued the southern plains region, especially afflicting Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado. Matters were made much worse by poor farming practices which left the soil vulnerable to erosion. Dry, hot winds swept topsoil away, creating huge dust storms which were so powerful they reached the east coast. These dust storms gave rise the moniker the “Dust Bowl,” referring not just to the geographical area affected but to the historical event itself. Tragically, many thousands of farming families lost their livelihoods during this time. The human cost of this calamity is vividly portrayed in John Steinbeck’s novel The Grapes of Wrath.
There are two key take away lessons from the heat wave index graph. First, the dominant heat waves of the 1930’s took place before there was any substantial human contribution from CO2 emissions. (Recall that CO2 emissions worldwide really began to increase following WWII in 1945.) Second, we should note that the heat wave index overall does not suggest any significant escalation. Additional data seems to confirm that the earth’s temperatures are slightly warming, with most of that warming actually occurring at night. In other words, warming seems to be manifesting itself primarily in slightly increasing nighttime low and overall average temperatures. Daytime high temperatures are much less affected. The chart below even suggests that high temperatures have been essentially stable while average and low temps have slightly increased.
Another chart below shows the percentage of US weather stations exceeding 100 degrees F. Unsurprisingly, we again recognize the heat waves which afflicted the nation during the 1930’s. Despite the experience of those living in Phoenix during the summer of 2020, the data show that nationwide the percentage of 100 degree days has not increased in recent years. In fact, one could make the case for a gentle downward trend in triple digit days since the time of the dust bowl.
We’ve learned that there is solid evidence that the earth is warming. However, this warming trend began over 300 years ago after the deadly frigid temperatures of the Little Ice Age reached their trough. Temperatures have since then risen somewhat erratically right until the present time. Obviously, for hundreds of years these rising temperatures had wholly natural causes. Following the Second World War, human CO2 emissions began to substantially rise. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it is entirely reasonable to believe that humans are making some contribution to the current warming. However, this contribution is likely very small compared to the powerful natural forces affecting our climate. Additionally, while slightly increasing warmth has affected average temperatures, this has had much less affect on extreme high temperatures.
There are very sound scientific reasons to explain this phenomenon. Remember again that plants “breathe” carbon dioxide through small pores (or stomata) on the under surface of their leaves. But when these pores are open to absorb CO2, the plant also loses water. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 allow plants to obtain the carbon dioxide they require without losing as much water. This leaves more moisture in the soil, which in turn mitigates heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.
While it’s absolutely true that heat waves can be very dangerous, but it’s equally true that humanity has much more to fear from cold weather than from heat. You would never know it from listening to our media, but cold kills far, far more people than heat. In 2015, a worldwide team of scientists published the largest study ever of temperature related deaths in the prestigious scientific journal The Lancet. These scientists examined an astonishing 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. You can review their results below. Amazingly, these researchers found that cold weather kills more than 17 times more people than heat! Fascinatingly, it’s not extreme cold temperatures, but moderately cold temperatures which are the biggest killer, because such cold temperatures result in higher death rates due to heart disease and stroke.
Many other studies have confirmed these findings. One study specifically looked at temperature related deaths in the United Kingdom and Australia. The ratio of cold to heat related deaths in the UK exceeded 20:1 while in Australia it was over 16:1. We think about India as a country where people might be at high risk of death from extreme heat waves. But even in India, extreme heat kills only 25,000 people per year, whereas extreme cold kills about 50,000 and moderate cold kills 580,000 per year. Once again, humans have much more to fear from cold temperatures than heat waves.
The tragic irony is that current misguided global warming policies are causing far more temperature related deaths. Foolish climate policies in Germany, England and elsewhere have mandated more and more expensive, unreliable wind and solar power. This has resulted in skyrocketing energy prices. No country has made a bigger commitment to wind and solar power than Germany. Tragically, Germany’s experiment embracing renewable energy has been a disaster. German electricity prices have predictably soared. Many people have been driven into so-called energy poverty. One study showed that approximately 300,000 German households are no longer able to afford their electricity. Thousands of these households have had their electrical power cut off due to unpaid bills. Many others are forced to scavenge wood to keep their homes warm during the winter. Many Germans must suffer through the winter with under heated homes, thereby putting them at much higher risk of temperature related death. You might think that this couldn’t happen in the United States, but remember that Germany is the richest country in Europe! Those who have implemented these policies may have had good intentions, but you know what they say about good intentions and the road to Hell.
The great news is that slightly increasing global warmth will overall reduce the number of people dying from extreme temperatures. Although there may indeed be more people at risk of heat related problems, this will be far outweighed by the reduction in cold related deaths. And this entire discussion does not even account for the most important factor of all – human adaptability! Economic development has allowed human to create a world whereby we are much less vulnerable to extreme temperatures of any kind. The widespread use of air conditioning in the developed world has drastically lowered our vulnerability to high temperatures.
So let’s summarize. The media and leftist politicians constantly bombard us with the narrative of impeding climate doom. As we have learned the last several weeks, this narrative is unsupported by the facts. Yes, the earth has been experiencing a warming trend over the last few centuries. Yes, human carbon dioxide emissions are likely playing a small role in warming. However, the gentle rise in temperatures and carbon dioxide has been largely beneficial, both to humanity and to the rest of the natural world. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have allowed forests to flourish. The earth is getting greener with every passing year. Longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilization have allowed humans to produce more and more abundant crops. Extreme weather events such as hurricanes have shown so sign of increasing. The overall number of tornadoes are not changing and the number of strong tornadoes are decreasing. Baleful events such as droughts and wildfires are decreasing, in part thanks to higher levels of carbon dioxide which allow trees to retain water more efficiently, leaving more moisture in the soil. And finally, gently warmer temperatures are a generally a boon for humanity, insulating us from the much more dangerous threat of cold. So take heart, dear reader, and spread the good news!
